Demography

Climate-driven, but dynamic and complex? A reconciliation of competing hypotheses for species’ distributions

Abstract Estimates of the percentage of species “committed to extinction” by climate change range from 15% to 37%. The question is whether factors other than climate need to be included in models predicting species’ range change. We created …

Disentangling competitive vs. climatic drivers of tropical forest mortality

Abstract Tropical forest mortality is controlled by both biotic and abiotic processes, but how these processes interact to determine forest structure is not well understood. Using long-term demography data from permanent forest plots at the Paracou …

Predicting the abundance of forest types across the eastern United States through inverse modelling of tree demography

Abstract Global environmental change is expected to induce widespread changes in the geographic distribution and biomass of forest communities. Impacts have been projected from both empirical (statistical) and mechanistic (physiology-based) modelling …

Advancing population ecology with integral projection models: a practical guide

Summary Integral projection models (IPMs) use information on how an individual's state influences its vital rates – survival, growth and reproduction – to make population projections. IPMs are constructed from regression models predicting vital rates …

Estimating covariation between vital rates: A simulation study of connected vs. separate generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs)

Covariation between vital rates is recognized as an important pattern to be accounted for in demographic modeling. We recently introduced a model for estimating vital rates and their covariation as a function of known and unknown effects, using …